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Using Moodix in Long‑Term Time Frames

(Weekly and daily charts; investment horizon: weeks to months)

3.1  Why long‑term sentiment matters

Large portfolio decisions are rarely taken on intraday noise. Mood‑driven price moves build up over days, peak, and then unwind. By tracking the Moodix Index™ on weekly (1 W) and daily (1 D) candles you can spot the early slide from optimism to caution, confirm whether a correction is serious, and recognise when conditions flip back to a bullish environment.

3.2  The six‑phase sentiment cycle

Phase What you see on the chart Typical interpretation Portfolio action
1 · Beginning of negative sentiment Index crosses below zero for the first time. A run of bearish headlines outweighs bullish ones. Start tightening risk; prepare a shopping list.
2 · Confirmation of the correction Index falls past the long‑term average depth of negative waves (≈ –0.21). Fear dominates; meaningful price drop likely. Accumulate cash or hedge.
3 · Progress of correction Index stays below MA‑5; MA‑5 below MA‑10. Entrenched RiskOff wave; often driven by macro/geopolitics. Wait—do not rush in front of the train.
4 · End of correction Index closes between MA‑5 and MA‑10 after Phase 2. Sellers are losing grip; first chance to rebuild longs. Initiate pilot positions; scale in cautiously.
5 · Start of positive sentiment Index rises above MA‑5; MA‑5 rises above MA‑10. Confirmed RiskOn wave; problems resolved or absorbed. Deploy core exposure; ride the trend.
6 · Fading of positive sentiment Index closes below both MA‑5 and MA‑10. New negative force appears; rally in danger. Trim gains, add hedges, or step aside.

Indecipherable sentiment—two short, shallow waves in a row—signals a directionless market. Sit tight until the next wave exceeds its long‑term average strength.

3.3  Key thresholds to remember

Metric Threshold Why it matters
Average depth of negative waves –0.21 p (±0.02) Crossing it usually separates minor pull‑backs from true corrections.
Average height of positive waves +0.11 p (±0.02) Reaching it confirms a strong up‑trend; growth tends to persist.

Negative waves are roughly twice as powerful as positive ones; fear travels faster than greed.

3.4  Practical checklist

1. Open the weekly or daily Moodix chart.

2. Locate the index relative to zero, MA‑5 and MA‑10.

3. Identify the current phase from the table above.

4. Adjust exposure accordingly, but wait for the daily close to confirm any signal.

5. Reassess whenever the index crosses a key threshold or one of the moving averages.