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Trump Assassination Attempt, Key Economic Data, Tech and Bank Earnings, ECB Decision, AI and Netflix in Focus (July 15 to July 19)
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 38 days Recap of the past week: The past week was all about anticipation for the new CPI figures. They turned out well. Actually, very well. However, it seemed the market was spooked by the inflation trend, leading to a negative turn. From...
Positive Sentiment Continues Amid Key US and China Data Releases (July 8 to July 12)
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 31 days Recap of the past week: Last week, influenced by US holidays and the start of the vacation season, market sentiment indicator continued on the wave of positive RiskOn sentiment, with the S&P 500 adding +1.5%. The market was...
Next Week’s Outlook: Key NFP Report and Sustaining RiskOn Sentiment (July 1 to July 5)
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 24 days Recap of the past week: The past week was primarily about waiting for Friday's data releases. We received the PCE index (slight decline as expected), the Michigan Sentiment Index, and the Chicago PMI. The SP500 index ended almost...
Quick market overview (June 24 to June 28) – state: RiskOn
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 17 days Recap of the past week: The past week did not bring any major updates with almost empty macro calendar. Central banks provided their updates on interest rates. The only surprise was perhaps Bank of England's hawkish stance. With...
Trump Assassination Attempt, Key Economic Data, Tech and Bank Earnings, ECB Decision, AI and Netflix in Focus (July 15 to July 19)
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 38 days Recap of the past week: The past week was all about anticipation for the new CPI figures. They turned out well. Actually, very well. However, it seemed the market was spooked by the inflation trend, leading to a negative turn. From our measurement perspective, it felt like a classic "Buy The Rumors, Sell The...
Quick market overview (June 10 to June 14) – state: Neutral
Market sentiment: Neutral 8 days Recap of the past week: The past week was marked by ECB rates and the US labor market. The ECB did not surprise and lowered rates by 0.25% as expected. The market was slightly surprised by the reduction in holdings of securities under...
Quick market overview (June 3 to June 7) – state: Neutral
Market sentiment: Neutral 2 days Recap of the past week: Last week, market participants were eagerly awaiting the release of the PCE index on Friday, that has a potential to shift market sentiment indicator. Thursday's quarterly PCE data suggested that a significant...
Outlook for May 31, 2024
We are approaching the key macro of the week - the month-on-month US PCE price index - an indicator that the Fed says is the main measure of inflation in the US economy. Market sentiment indicator state RiskOn from last week's run has moved into Neutral territory and...
Quick market overview (May 27 to May 31) – state: RiskOn
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 27 days Recap of the past week: The past week was marked by a plethora of speeches from central bankers, the results from nVidia, and the FOMC meeting minutes - important market topic lately. The central bankers and FOMC leaned towards a...
Quick market overview (May 20 to May 24) – state: RiskOn
Market sentiment: Neutral - 1 days Recap of the past week: This past week was all about waiting for the new U.S. CPI numbers. Before we received the CPI data, the market first encountered new PPI figures, which were quite disappointing. However, Jerome Powell came to...
Outlook for May 15, 2024
Long awaited US CPI day is here and we brace ourselves for the time 14:30 CET / 8:30 AM EST. The market digested yesterday's rebounced PPI readings with ease and seems to be in good mood for today's figures, market sentiment indicator is still in slightly positive...
Quick market overview (May 13 to May 17) – state: RiskOn
Market sentiment: RiskOn - 10 days Recap of the past week: The past week didn’t offer much excitement, yet despite low volatility, the S&P 500 managed a 2% gain, largely attributed to a buoyant RiskOn market sentiment. The main highlight was the weekly overview of...
Quick market overview (May 6 to May 10) – state: RiskOn
Market sentiment: RiskOn 3 days Recap of the past week: Last week, the markets were poised in anticipation of the FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference by Jerome Powell. Beyond the expected slow pace of quantitative tightening, no significant new...
Sentiment update for May 2, 2024
It has been about 22 days since the long RiskOn market sentiment break. The market has switched to negative RiskOff sentiment that has been lacking balls (weak negative sentiment) since it started. We can conclude that the market has been pretty much digesting further...